SELECT PUBLICATIONS

Junk Bonds and Public Policy, Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, February 1986.

Disinflation, Equity Valuation, and Investor Rationality, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Fourth Quarter 1986, Co-authored with William P. Osterberg.

The Default Premium and Corporate Bond Experience, Journal of Finance, Volume 42; No. 1, March 1987.

Debt-Deflation and Corporate Finance, Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, March 1987.

A Critical Look at SIPC, Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, July 1987.

Default Risk and Duration Analysis, in Edward I. Altman (ed.) The High-Yield Debt Market, Dow-Jones Irwin, 1990.

Privatization: Macrofinancial Effects, Staff Study on Privatization, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, March 1989.

The High-Yield Market Structure and the Impact of Security Supplies, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, August 1989.

An Approach to Forecasting Default Rates, Moody's Special Report, August 1991. Also published in The New High Yield Bond Market, edited by Jess Lederman and Michael Sullivan, Probus Publishing Co., 1993.

Corporate Bond Defaults and Default Rates, 1970-1990, Moody's Special Report, January 1991; updated in 1992, 1993, 1994 and 1995, with various co-authors. January 1991 version published in The Journal of Fixed Income, Volume 1, No.1, June 1991.

Defaults and Orderly Exits of Commercial Paper Issuers, 1972-1990, Moody's Special Report, January 1991; updated in 1992, 1993 and 1994, with various co-authors.

Measuring Changes in Corporate Credit Quality, Moody's Special Report, November 1993. Co-authored with Lea V. Carty, also in The Journal of Fixed Income, Volume 4, No. 1, June 1994.

Using Default Rates to Model the Term Structure of Credit Risk, Financial Analysts Journal, September/October 1994. Also in Satyajit Das (ed.) Credit Derivatives, John Wiley & Sons, 1998.

Probability of Default: A Derivatives Perspective, co-authored with Lea V. Carty, in Derivative Credit Risk, Risk Publications, London 1995.

How and Why Do Structured Finance Ratings Change?  Rating Transition Study for Single-Family Residential Pass-Through Securities, Moody's Investors Service, May 12, 1995.

Credit Shifts in Residential Mortgage Pass-Through Securities: A Rating Transition Study Update, Moody's Investors Service, May 3, 1996. 

Moody's Approach to Rating Residential Mortgage Pass-Through Securities, with various co-authors, Moody's Structured Finance Special Report, November 1996.

Moody's Approach to Jointly Supported Obligations, co-authored with Christina Cotton, Moody's Special Report, November 1997.

Improving Transparency in Asian Banking Systems, Moody's Special Comment, November 1998. Also in the IMF/Chicago Fed conference proceedings: The Asian Financial Crisis: Origins, Implications and Solutions, Kluwer 1999.

Understanding Moody's Corporate Bond Ratings and Rating Process, co-authored with Richard Cantor and Christopher Mahoney, Moody's Special Comment, May 2002.

Tracing the Origins of "Investment Grade, Moody's Special Comment, January 2004.

A User's Guide to Moody's Default Predictor Model: an Accounting Ratio Approach, with Jay Viswanathan, Moody's Special Comment, December 2004.

The Incorporation of Joint-Default Analysis into Moody's Corporate, Financial and Government Rating Methodologies, Moody's Special Comment, February 2005.

White Paper on Rating Competition and Structured Finance, re-published in The Journal of Structured Finance, Fall 2008.

Shedding Light on Subprime RMBS, published in The Journal of Structured Finance, Spring 2009

Monitoring Rating Quality, unpublished draft, May 2009

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